Random subscriber Mark Boepple from Next New Customer sent me this Wall Street Journal article called “When to Invest In a Stupid Idea.”
The author, Andy Kessler, summarizes the article like this:
My advice is always to invest in the fog. When everyone else is incredulous, look for scale. Usually, no one else can see it. Squint hard, but don’t make stuff up. If you can see something that everyone dismisses, and that will get cheaper over a long period of time, maybe decades, buy in cheap and go along for the long ride. Others will eventually overpay.
This made me think of a few things.
Over five years ago (when I was at Content Marketing Institute) we were preaching about the impending move back to email as platform. Right about that time we saw Morning Brew launch. And then The Hustle. And then Substack. Right now, email is HOTT! (yes, with two t’s.)
At the beginning of 2019, Bitcoin hit approximately $3,000 per coin. Everyone was hating on it. It’s now at over $50,000 per coin.
Okay…I was long email and Bitcoin and those things worked out. But where are the opportunities in the fog right now?
Here are a few things I scratched out that I think will be big opportunities in the very near future. Please email me if you think I’m wrong (or right). Or just email me to say hi.
Print to Bounce in 2023
I’m not going to do it, but I really want to start a print magazine right now. With print magazines down to their lowest level in (maybe) ever, consumers are desperate for quality print communications that don’t look like a T-Mobile post card or someone scamming your business through an unemployment claim.
Also, the push back in social media. People are looking to disconnect from their devices.
We’ve hit a print magazine low. I feel we are in for a dead-cat bounce in the next few months. Watch for a number of large brands to launch targeted print magazines…probably quarterly in nature. Also look for a number of luxury brands to create some thick monthly magazines in partnership with traditional publishers. If you have the means, thinking print may be an opportunity.
Good Advertising Making a Comeback
Outside of Google, Facebook and Amazon, advertising has been sucking wind for a decade. Many outlets are predicting an advertising comeback in 2021. I think this will happen, but larger than most expect. Corporations just have too much money sitting around right now, and they need to spend it (and they stink at content marketing).
Long term I think consistent advertising in print magazines and reliable digital venues will see a solid three-to-five year run. The key to success will be consistency. One ad doesn’t do anything. To make an impact, advertise for at least nine months in a row with one particular property.
It’s a Buyer’s Market in Podcasts. So Buy.
I’ve been chatting it up with a few podcasters recently. They all love what they do, and their numbers are growing, but not one of them said they wouldn’t sell their podcast. Most would keep producing their podcast on a monthly retainer if some brand came along to buy it for a pair of Air Jordan’s.
If I’m you I’m making a list of some niche podcasts in your industry. Then make friendly with them. Odds are they’d sell to you if you promise not to destroy it. Might save you three years of organic growth time. Give it some thought.
Now, all that said, here are some things that are “bubbling” that I feel still have legs.
– Bitcoin and Ethereum both double from here in the next 12 months (Bitcoin is at $55,000 and Ether is $2,150 as I type this). This does not construe as financial advice. Do your homework.
– Creator coins, although way too hot, have legs. I truly feel content creators can and will build their own mini-economies with tokens. If you’d like to support our little community, buy some $TILT coin today.
– While everyone is paying attention to the craziness of NFTs and art, we are going to see some amazing innovation in other industries. In the next two years, you’ll see everything from sports tickets to insurance contracts become NFTs.
Do you have any unloved trends? Reply to this email and let me know. Maybe I’ll include them in the next issue.